211500z position near 11.6n 53.9e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 03b located approximately 165 nm east of cape
guardafui, Somalia has tracked north-northwestward at 05 knots over
the past six hours. The current position represents a departure from
the previously forecast track, and is based upon animated multi-
spectral imagery which depicts an elongated and partially-exposed,
low level circulation center (LLCC). This change in storm motion over
the past six hours is due to the enhanced low-Level Cross equatorial
gradient flow south of the system which is providing a weak poleward
steering influence on the sytorm. Convection continues to wane over the
LLCC under the effects of increased vertical shear with the majority of
activity confined to the southwestern quadrant of the storm in an area
of enhanced low-level convergence. Current intensity is based on Dvorak
estimates of 25 to 35 knots, multiple nearby surface observations and
scatterometry data depicting 30 to 35 knot unflagged winds near the
center. While outflow remains fair, vertical wind shear continues to
degrade the upper level exhaust mechanism. Despite the unforeseen
changes in the recent storm motion, the overall forecast philosophy
remains largely unchanged since the previous warning message. Tc 03b is
expected to maintain 35-knot strength through tau 12 and then will
begin gradually weakening due to moderate vertical shear and land
interaction while approaching the somali coast under the steering
influence of the low-level sub-tropical ridge north of the system. Near
tau 36, the storm will move over the Gulf of Aden where it is expected
to continue weakening as it encounters lower ocean heat content values,
increased vertical wind shear and the intrusion of drier air from the
north. Tc 03b is expected to dissipate over land near tau 72 along the
coast of yemen. This forecast favors the consensus of available dynamic
aids which, with the exception of GFS, are in fair agreement throughout
the period. Maximum significant wave height at 210600z is 13 feet. Next
warnings at 212100z and 220000z.
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Tropical Storm Tracking Map

Tropical Storm Tracking Map